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SP500 LDN TRADING UPDATE 15/9/25
***QUOTING ES1 CONTRACT FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS SUBTRACT ~4.75 POINTS***
***WEEKLY ACTION AREA VIDEO TO FOLLOW AHEAD OF NY OPEN***
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 6560/50
WEEKLY RANGE RES 6650 SUP 6509
SEP MOPEX STRADDLE 186.6 POINTS - 6260/6639
SEP EOM STRADDLE 178 POINTS - 6282/6638
DAILY VWAP BULLISH 6562
WEEKLY VWAP BULLISH 6510
DAILY BALANCE - ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER -6583
WEEKLY ONE TIME FRAMING HIGHER - 6499
MONTHLY ONE TIME FRAMING UP - 6239
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favoring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Up (OTFU): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signaling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Down (OTFD): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement..
GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING DESK VIEWS
Themes Resonating with Global Clients and GS Perspectives
1) Key Topics and Insights
Connecting You to GS:
GCEM Virtual Macro Symposium Highlights:
Inflation and CPI Insights: Learnings on inflation pass-through from tariffs and its implications for USD and Rates markets.
LDP Elections: Evaluating their impact on BoJ rate hikes and fiscal risks.
Market Divergence: Are Rates and Equity markets signaling different outcomes?
Chinese Resilience: Why Chinese growth and assets have shown strength despite US tariffs.
2) Trades We Like:
USDCNH Downside:
Observations: The stronger CNY-fix during summer occurred without significant FX market pressure, signaling a deliberate PBoC policy move toward RMB appreciation post-US-China trade truce.
Drivers of RMB Outperformance:
Increased exporter FX conversions supported by seasonal trends.
Fed rate cuts boosting momentum.
Reduced drag from H-share dividend payments.
Potential Xi-Trump meeting.
Covered onshore banks’ forward short positions.
Trade Recommendations:
i) Buy 3-month (11th Dec) 7.0750 vs 6.99 USDCNH 1x1.5 Ratio Put Spread for 24.5bp USD.
ii) Buy 3-month (11th Dec) 7.0750 USDCNH Put with European EKO at 6.9750 for 20.5bp USD.
iii) Buy 3-month (11th Dec) Dual Binary EURGBP > 1% OTMS vs EURAUD < 1% OTMS for 9.5% EUR.
3) Expert Commentary
David Malpass (Former World Bank President):
Global growth remains fragile due to high rates affecting debt service in emerging markets.
Structural reforms like faster project approvals and credible fiscal anchors are critical to productivity.
Jonathan Martin (Politico):
The rise of “state capitalism” with government intervention in corporate decisions.
Midterms: Trump’s focus on avoiding a House flip to mitigate impeachment threats.
Alec Phillips (GS Chief US Political Economist):
Fed influence shifting due to White House pressures.
Post-midterm policy likely to lean on executive tools like tariffs and immigration.
Jan Hatzius (US Chief Economist):
Labor market nearing stall-speed, increasing risks of a self-reinforcing slowdown.
Fed expected to cut rates gradually toward a near-neutral stance by mid-next year.
Anshul Sehgal (Co-head of FICC):
Anticipates a Fed cutting cycle with rates potentially reaching 2.75%.
Raj Venkataramani (Global Head of FX Trading):
Short USD trades remain favorable, particularly against currencies like SEK, EUR, AUD, and CAD.
John Flood (Partner, US Equities):
Positive outlook on alternative asset managers amid improving capital markets.
Nitin Jindal (Partner, Commodity Trading):
Central banks diversifying away from USD assets, favoring gold, with the trend expected to continue.
Cathie Wood (CEO of ARK):
Crypto resilience driven by structural economic shifts and supportive policy backdrops.
Stablecoins and tokenization poised to transform financial markets by 2026.
Rob Citrone (Founder, Discovery Capital):
EM attractiveness bolstered by Fed rate cuts; highlights Nigeria and Venezuela as key opportunities.
Cathy Hepworth (PGIM Fixed Income):
EM outperformance driven by global economic stability, favorable valuations, and shifting geopolitical alliances.
Aaron Levie (CEO of Box):
Enterprise AI adoption growing, with transformative potential for automating unstructured data processes.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
High Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 75% and 75% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with Tickmill UK Ltd and Tickmill Europe Ltd respectively. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Futures and Options: Trading futures and options on margin carries a high degree of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment. These products are not suitable for all investors. Ensure you fully understand the risks and take appropriate care to manage your risk.
Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!